I’ve been in this game for thirty-five years. I remember the frantic globalisation of the 90s, the shock of 2008, and the scramble of 2020. But as I sit here in December 2025, looking back at a year that defied almost every forecast, I can tell you this: the playbook hasn't just changed; it’s been rewritten in a different language.
We are tired. I hear it in every CPO roundtable and vendor call. The "permacrisis" fatigue is real. But here is the good news: we are also smarter, faster, and more resilient than we have ever been. If you are reading this, you navigated the February 2025 tariff spikes, you pivoted during the mid-year logistics bottlenecks, and you kept your supply lines moving.
As we look toward 2026, we need to step back from the daily firefighting and look at the structural shifts defining our profession. Let’s put the AI hype aside for a moment, critical as it is, and talk about the bedrock of our job: Risk Management.
1. The Landscape: Navigating the "Tariff Tangle"
If 2024 was the year of anticipation, 2025 was the year of impact. The geopolitical chessboard has become incredibly crowded.
The reality hit home hard this February when new tariff regimes kicked in, specifically the US imposition of steeper levies on imports from major trade partners like China and Mexico. For many of us, this wasn't just a line-item adjustment; it was a fundamental challenge to our cost models.
We are no longer dealing with simple "trade wars"; we are operating in a fragmented global economy where protectionism is policy. The "China+1" strategy has rapidly evolved into "China+Many" or, for some sectors, a complete regional decoupling. The challenge today isn’t just finding a supplier; it’s finding a supplier in a jurisdiction that won't be sanctioned next Tuesday.
The Win: Those of you who invested in multi-shoring back in 2023 are winning right now. You aren't just saving money; you are guaranteeing continuity.
2. The Physical and Digital Squeeze
While we were watching the politicians, the physical and digital worlds conspired to keep us on our toes.
The Climate Reality: We can no longer treat "force majeure" as an anomaly. The climate-driven disruptions of 2025, from the floods in South Asia to the drought-induced shipping lane restrictions, proved that environmental risk is supply chain risk. If you don't know the elevation of your Tier 2 supplier’s warehouse, you have a blind spot.
The "Quiet" Cyber Threat: While everyone was worried about AI taking their jobs, cybercriminals were busy targeting our vendor portals. In 2025, we saw a spike in "island hopping" attacks, where hackers used smaller, less secure vendors to breach major enterprise networks. This isn't about AI; it's about basic Vendor Risk Management (VRM). A secure procurement platform is now as vital as a signed contract.
3. Back to Basics: The Human Element
In this high-tech, high-risk era, my advice might surprise you: Pick up the phone.
Technology gave us visibility, but relationships give us priority. When the next bottleneck hits, and it will, the supplier who answers your call isn't the one who received the most automated emails. It’s the one you broke bread with (virtually or literally).
We need to return to the fundamentals of Supplier Relationship Management (SRM).
- Map your sub-tiers: You cannot manage risk you cannot see. The most successful CPOs this year were those who knew their Tier 3 suppliers by name.
- Cost vs. Value: We have finally moved past the obsession with "lowest unit cost." The new metric is Total Value of Ownership, which prices in the cost of resilience. Paying 5% more for a supplier with dual-site manufacturing isn't an expense; it's an insurance policy.
4. The Future Outlook (2026-2028)
So, where do we go from here?
Resilience as a Competitive Advantage By 2028, I predict "Supply Chain Resilience" will be a marketing claim as common as "Sustainability." Companies will win customers by proving they can deliver when others can't.
The Rise of "Sovereign Supply Chains" Expect to see more government intervention in critical supply chains (semiconductors, pharma, rare earth minerals). Procurement leaders will need to become part-time diplomats, understanding regulatory compliance as deeply as they understand Incoterms.
From "Just-in-Time" to "Just-in-Case" to "Just-Smart" We swung from lean inventory to bloated safety stocks. The next three years will be about finding the "Smart" middle ground, using predictive data (yes, AI plays a role here) to position inventory dynamically rather than hoarding it.
Final Thoughts
I want to leave you with this: You are the architects of the future economy. Thirty-five years ago, procurement was often seen as a back-office clerical function. Today, as confirmed by the latest economic sentiment reports, we are the strategic guardians of the enterprise.
The risks in 2026 are high, but so is the opportunity. We have the tools, we have the data, and most importantly, we have the battle-hardened experience of the last five years.
Take a breath. Diversify your portfolio. Call your key suppliers. We’ve got this.